The authors of this paper are at pains to point out that nobody, themselves included, can give a categorical answer to the headline question. However Jingyi Jang and Kei-Mu Yi, in this recent paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, have a stab based in part on the Japanese and Korean experience.
Bears will be happy to hear the researchers reckon China’s period of super rapid growth peaked probably sometime around 2011; but we’re all up to speed on that story now though I believe?
However, bulls, particularly those focused on consumption dynamics will be every bit as happy, and some, with the papers’ parting shot: ‘..China will improve its per capita income at a faster pace than that of the United States for about the next 45 years.. While China’s income per capita relative to the United States will more than double from today its absolute income per capita will increase ..by about a multiple of five.’ Yeowza!
The paper, a short seven-page math-free read, can be accessed in full via this link How Rich Will China Become?
Happy Sunday.