The title of the paper looked over today is misleading. It suggests a rhetorical question that an interested reader will find an answer to within it.
Christian Bobmans (et al.) writing in IMF Working Paper in fact seem to have bitten off more than they can chew. The problem is with ‘energy’, just like other complex systems, there are too many variables.
So, they swerve the question up front with the answer ‘Not anytime soon.’
The hardest variable of all to pin down is how developing markets are going to continue developing because this is where the real swings are going to be. As the researchers put it “..global energy demand is unlikely to saturate anytime soon because the income elasticity of energy demand is still close to one for emerging markets.”
Developed markets show signs they’ve reached a ‘dynamic saturation’ of energy usage where the effect of higher consumption is offset by efficiencies; but even there the demand is still rising.
There seem to be two main conclusions, that nobody is going to like. First, energy consumption is going to continue to rise globally for the indefinite and foreseeable future. Second, there’s only one sure way to retard this; arrest the development of developing economies.
All the Teslas, wind farms and solar panels that virtue signalling citizens of the developed world care to buy/install won’t do much to change this.
Doesn’t mean to say we shouldn’t stop trying to do what little we all can of course. The longer read if you care is here When Will Energy Demand Saturate?
Happy Sunday.