Zeyu Geng of Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange; University of Queensland takes us on a tour of where we are now in China in terms of the development of Fuel Cell Heavy Duty Vehicles* (FCHDVs).
China is important because where it goes will be where the rest of the world will, most likely, follow.
[* To remind this is a truck powered by electricity that’s produced onboard via a hydrogen fuel cell. So far this technology appears more workable for long distance heavy goods vehicles than pure battery vehicles in terms of range and convenience.]
New Energy Vehicle (NEV) wonks can peruse the paper in full by following this link China’s Future Transport – FCHDVs. The rest of us can find out most of what we need to know from the points summarized in the work. Videlicet?
- FCHDVs are currently between 2~3x the price of diesel equivalent trucks (Rmb200k~300k vs c. Rmb100k); but only because the available vehicles are necessarily pricey prototypes. The cost is bound therefore to fall.
- FCHDVs offer a 90% emission reduction versus diesel equivalent. How hydrogen is produced though, matters. Grey – from coal, blue – from gas or green – from alternatives (in cheapness order) are the only options.
- FCHDVs produce higher torque and instant power compared to diesel trucks as these are, de facto, electric vehicles. These characteristics are appreciated by operators, especially if loads have to be moved up hills.
- FCHDVs have a lower load capacity because the hydrogen tanks take up a lot of room. China requires the gas to be stored in a series of smaller tanks presently. The ‘efficiency’ of the vehicle is still over 100% better though.
- FCHDVs can equal the range of diesel equivalent trucks and will be cheaper to fill for the same journey. However, legacy, infrastructure and cost factors suggest diesel trucks will be in use for a very long time.
- As noted already, the cheapest source of energy for the production of hydrogen in China is necessarily coal. Blue and then Green hydrogen economics will improve but not materially for a decade or more.
- The government can, and likely will, do a lot to promote this technology by way of carbon pricing, subsidies for vehicle purchase and infrastructure build out. 60% of China’s greenhouse gas emissions are from transport.
- Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will provide complimentary replacement commercial vehicles. Battery-swap is the best option for long distance vehicles but fast-charging will dominate the short trip trucks and vans.
- Within the next 10-years NEVs will likely make up 16~20% of the commercial vehicle long and short haul fleet. This will represent the tipping-point to more widespread acceptance.
- Sinopec is the front runner to gain. It already has 30k gas stations in China that can offer (in time) hydrogen refueling and battery swaps and it has the most advanced hydrogen production and distribution facilities.
The point that struck me most forcibly reading this paper was China wants NEVs on its roads, be they BEVs or FCHDVs. They not only want it but they NEED it and the technology is workable, if currently pricey. And, when the government of China wants something to happen, guess what? You can be pretty sure it will.
Happy Sunday.