Author: Nial Gooding

There’s a lot to query in the analysis highlighted in the note reviewed today, but I’ll come to that later. First the fun part. Lisheng Yu (et al.) from the Sun Yat Sen University – School of Business wanted to know if Chinese Large Language Models (LLMs) were better at predicting stock price movement based […]

Mr. Dan Ciuriak, an economist formerly with the Canadian government now writing for his eponymous consulting firm takes a closer look at where the ‘free trade is a bad thing’ notion has come from in the U.S. In so doing he goes to the root of the misunderstanding (free trade is, mostly, not a bad […]

Since the first Trump tariffs were introduced against China America’s trade deficit has increased, both with China (depending on how you clock the data) and many other partners. However, the way America calculates the numbers shows a win in terms of a falling deficit with China. Whether the trade deficit with China has risen, or […]

Andrew J. Sinclair of the California Institute of Technology believes “..re-pegging the Hong Kong dollar to the renminbi is an inevitability.” He develops his argument from what he sees as a natural arc of progress in President Xi Jin Ping’s quest for National Security and the increasing use of the renminbi as a settlement currency. […]

Tian Ding at the School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (et al.) wondered if an analysis of southbound (i.e. China money into Hong Kong stocks) fund flow via the stock connect program had predictive ability? Northbound flows have been extensively studied to see how ‘smart money’ affects stock prices in […]

The paper looked over today from Peikai Li (et al.) from the Leeds University Business School introduces the concept of SUGAR or Stealth Use [At work] of Generative AI Resources. For a number of reasons employees (and not a few academics it’s also noted!) are using generative AI stealthily. It may be they fear jobs […]

From about 1996 the world’s largest lenders to poor countries realized forgiveness was the only way out. So they put together an initiative called the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) plan. In short they ruled off existing obligations and made new help conditional on reforms. Of 39-HIPC countries 37 made the cut and debt levels […]

In the last 20-years G20 EMs have rocketed and become a much bigger component of the global economic dynamic. To remind, they are: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. None though has been more influential or become more important than China and the paper highlighted today, a Working […]

Xuan Li from the Boston University and Xiang Zhou from Hunan’s Xiangtan University take a look at the benefits of a window seat for test takers in China’s notoriously brutal college entrance exam(s). Using data from the 2019 cycle they looked at a sample of 3,700 students, and the results are astonishing. A window seat […]

Leo Yu, Associate Clinical Professor of Legal Writing, Research and Advocacy at the Southern Methodist University Dedman School of Law has produced a useful monograph not a paper, but I thought its contents sufficiently topical to highlight in light of the noise around TikTok. He argues that the front-and-center problem with TikTok is? It’s Chinese, […]

“The happiness of China’s residents is still at a relatively low level compared with the rest of the world. According to the World Happiness Report,..” note the research team in the paper highlighted today. Raising ‘happiness’ must then be a goal for a government that wants to maintain legitimacy and do the right thing by […]

Researchers Liya Wang and Hideo Owan from Japan’s Waseda University have found a relationship in China between gender diversity in firm’s top management teams (TMT) and corporate innovation. Having established the relationship they move on to consider the mechanism producing this effect. It’s been proven beyond doubt [This is my aside not part of the […]

The purpose of the paper looked at today is to explain where China’s AI legislative framework has come from and, of more interest, where it’s heading. The single most important point of the work is this: we’re going to hear more from China in future as a global industry regulator, standard setter and architect of […]

Here’s the key point from the piece looked over today; “..the US-China trade war may not be a turning point in the process of globalization but rather an opportunity for the reorganization of economic activities, both within and between countries.” Researchers Fanghua Li, Liyuan Wang and Li Zhang from the University of New South Wales, […]

The Peterson Institute for International Economics has crafted a document they hope will inform the incoming Trump administration about the future use of ‘sanctions’. To highlight the often useless nature of these, of all the examples they could have chosen they went with one especially pertinent to readers of this note involving Hong Kong’s former […]