Author: Nial Gooding

Do capital controls work? There’s a long answer to that question with many subjective clauses but the short answer is, nobody really knows. There are so many moving parts to an economy and separating short, medium and long term effects not to mention the highly partisan nature of the question means juries remain out on […]

The scope of work highlighted today from Joanna Bialynicka of the Birula Cracow University of Economics, Poland concludes frustratingly in 2015. Trends identified, and the single most important, though I doubt have changed direction since and, if anything, are likely to have intensified. A summary of the main points: Over the period the volume of […]

I buy chocolate from a vendor in Istanbul. That vendor has to source ingredients like cocoa beans from suppliers outside Turkey in, say, Ghana. The Ghanaians in turn must buy fertilizer from, say, Korea and at every step a different currency is involved. The inefficiencies are obvious and why, in 2021, are we still trading […]

This happened in 2020: the U.S. economy contracted by 3.5% and China’s expanded by 2.3%; and Covid deaths, per million of population, were 300x higher in the U.S. than in China. There’s no debate to be had therefore about which country handled the problem better. Advantage, China. In the paper highlighted today from Yusuke Narita […]

What indeed? Scott R. Baker (et al.) from the Northwestern University has analyzed large stock market moves, their proximate causes and subsequent market performance based on media analysis. To do this he and his colleagues looked at 6,200 jumps in 16-markets from 1900 to 2020 (the U.S. from 1900, the U.K from 1930 and the […]

Jelena Große-Bley and Genia Kostka from the Free University of Berlin take a look at how (what must be) the fastest growing city in the fastest growing economy in the world is rolling with data usage, especially at the governmental level. Shenzhen is a good place to go looking for trends in how government are […]

The best place to start this summary is with part of the conclusion: “U.S. firms are collecting record royalty payments for their IP from China and generating gangbuster profits due to their access to Chinese labor, suppliers, and the country’s growing consumer market. American consumers benefit from US-China economic interdependence and so do some workers. […]

First, a relevant aside on Alibaba* (BABA). Below is the recommendation summary from Yahoo! Finance as of Friday, April 16th. Not exactly a wide dispersion of views (and check out that average target-price!). Sure, it’s a great company changing the face of commerce in the world’s largest consumer market, and all that. However, it’s also […]

Since Premier Li Keqiang declared a ‘War on Pollution’ in China in 2014 what’s been the progress so far? In a nutshell, and I could leave it here, tremendous! Michael Greenstone (et al.) of the University of Chicago sums it up more elegantly in the paper highlighted today thus: “China’s recent experiences are without historical […]

From the early days of China’s stock markets, in the ’90s and early noughties, Chinese stocks traded at valuation premiums to U.S. peers. Then, from 2009 onward, they moved to discounts and today are significantly cheaper; what’s been going on? Geert Behaert of the Columbia Business School (et al. from Tsinghua U.) have some answers […]

The paper highlighted today is the most important piece I’ve read in a long time on the subject of ‘value’. It’s dense and not easy to summarize but I’ll have a go, in bullet point form, below. For practitioners the full-read is a fiduciary responsibility [You can access it via this link Reports of Value’s […]

Yasir Shahab (et al.), an Associate Professor at the School of Accounting at the Xijing University in Xi’an makes some interesting and important points about stock price crash risk among Chinese stocks. To remind, ‘stock price crash risk’ is not just under-performance. It’s the problem (to which Chinese companies are especially prone) of a systematic […]

That the U.S. is the center of the global financial system is so incontrovertibly obvious you’d think there was little mileage in fact-checking the observation? For over 40-years, according to the researchers of the paper highlighted this week, the U.S. has transmitted good news from its markets to others around the world and shocks to […]

We all know the problem; China has peaked in terms of how much low-end stuff it either can or wants to produce. When Japan graduated from this position the Asian Tigers of Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore were ready to fill the post of world’s low cost producer(s) of choice; but who’ll take over […]

[The work highlighted today was published in the Financial Analyst’s Journal on October 6th last year. At that time the gold price was approximately U$1,900/ounce. As I write it’s around U$1,700/ounce or 10% lower.] Gold, in real terms, peaked in 1980 and 2011 and is now not far off those levels; and after those peaks? […]

The most important point, for me at least, from the work highlighted today published in the East Asian Economic Review (Dec. ’20) by Chad P. Brown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and CEPR is how murky the global semiconductor industry is. The main point of the article though is to show how little […]

The title of the paper looked over today is misleading. It suggests a rhetorical question that an interested reader will find an answer to within it. Christian Bobmans (et al.) writing in IMF Working Paper in fact seem to have bitten off more than they can chew. The problem is with ‘energy’, just like other […]