“Contrary to the conventional wisdom, our empirical analysis indicates that urbanization or speculative demand for housing played [only a] limited role in driving China’s residential investment boom.” That’s according to economists Ding Ding and Weichang Lian, the authors of the IMF Working Paper highlighted today. This is an important conclusion; because if the IMF who […]
Author: Nial Gooding
I’m not just referring to the last couple of years. In work published* in the Q4 edition of the Financial Analysts Journal you’ll find this observation “.., since 1997 the market with the fastest growing economy [China, out of 43 that made up the MSCI World Country Index] has posted one of the lowest stock […]
Liberals don’t like to be reminded of the harsh truth at the beginning of this paper from Gregory Schaffer, Chancellor’s Professor at the University of California’s Irvine School of Law i.e. power is stronger than law. Surely the rule of law is a superior model to the rule of man? Well, to a non-liberal the […]
The U.S., IMHO, has embarked on a multi-year policy of China containment. The present so-called trade dispute is only the most current of what will be a series of China ‘tail-pulling’ exercises ahead. Anything then that can shed light on how average men and women on the Chengdu omnibus feel their government should act when […]
Published in February this year the report highlighted today is from the non-partisan Congressional Research Service in the U.S. and is authored by Wayne M. Morrison, a Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance. It provides a scholarly-but-with-a-light-touch review of where China is today and how it got here and while close China watchers will find […]
Overall, the authors of a recent IMF Working Paper (November 12th 2018) reckon, China’s doing a good job on rebalancing and, by implication, management of the economy in general. Rui Mano and Jiayi Zhang point out that superficially disappointing progress in 2017 had more to do with external factors than domestic backsliding. They conclude, unsurprisingly, […]
‘Fintech’, to borrow a somewhat overused tech simile, is like teenage sex; everyone talks about it, nobody knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it and so claims they’re doing it too. The paper highlighted this week from Bonnie Buchanan and Cathy Cao of the Seattle University is hard to summarize […]
A question I sometimes ask when visiting a new company is ‘Whom, among the analyst community, do you think most reliably summarizes your prospects?’. This is of course a round-the-garden way of asking to whom do you drop the most timely and informed updates? The paper highlighted this week, from Zengquan Li and T. J. […]
黑猫白猫, 能捉到老鼠就是好猫 (black cat, white cat; if it can catch rats, that’s a good cat). China has a long history of flying policy kites, especially in the area of financial reform, and it sent another up last year directed at SOEs using the weakest listed telecom provider China Unicom as its subject. Following an announcement […]
Years ago I was in a garment factory in southern China. I made a note as I was being shown around about how enlightened the factory owner was having air-conditioning installed to keep staff comfortable. Later in the formal Q+A I brought up the issue and asked how they justified the extra expense? If we […]
China is a good place to study the return to education and social scientists have been at it for some time. Researchers M. Niaz Asadullah and Saixi Xiao, both affiliated with the University of Malaya but writing in a Working Paper for the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, count 68-such studies from 1987 to 2016. […]
China’s stock markets have progressed, in the last three years, not necessarily to investor’s advantage. A look at the performance of broad indices over the period is self explanatory: Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index -25% Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index -36% Hang Seng China Enterprises Index -7% Summary Conclusion Presently, nothing good can be said […]
The paper highlighted today claims to be the first formal medical assessment of the ‘Bigu’ fasting regime. Bigu fasting (more here if you care Bigu Fasting) has been practiced in China in one form or another for over 2,000 years. Today it’s promoted as a Taoist ritual and is usually carried out at retreats under […]
First, a handy graphic from the note highlighted today. The Working Paper from the IMF raked over this morning sent me a long way down memory lane and, as this is my blog, you’ll have to allow the reminiscence. My first job was working as the assistant to the money manager of an insurance company […]
The IPO process in Hong Kong, as I’ll explain in this note, has been a serial value-destroyer in the last couple of years and part, but by no means all, of the problem lies within the industry that greases its wheels. It is investors though that must shoulder the final responsibility for a system that […]
The paper highlighted today is dense and the mechanics employed to get to the conclusions probably beyond the keenest (well, me anyway) of mortals. The summary though is intuitive and valuable. Videlicet? China’s multi-year and now multi-decade property boom has come with costs to other parts of the economy. Previous studies, for example, have highlighted […]
You’ll notice, when you look at a number of Chinese companies in depth, it seems they have a lot of academics on their boards; and they do. In fact, around 70% of all Chinese companies have at least one academic on the board (in the U.S. it’s around 40%). Jiaren Pang, Xinyi Zhang and Xi […]
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China Investors: Hold-Fast!
In Brief The short-term macro outlook for Emerging Markets (EM), of which China is the largest, is poor; but stock prices have moved a long way to reflect this. This isn’t a compelling argument for fresh engagement. It is however a strong argument for investors already involved to Hold-Fast. Preamble The macroeconomic outlook for EMs […]
Does severe air pollution affect audit judgement? Spoiler alert, it does; but how? Using data from a sample period from 2003, when the first nationwide air quality data is available, to 2014 researchers Xingtai Baoding, Xiaofeng Peng and Jianguang Zeng from the Toronto, Toledo and Chongqing universities respectively show that where air quality was worse […]
The study highlighted this week, a 275-city analysis from 1999 to 2016, claims to be the most comprehensive analysis to date of China’s urban property market. Researchers Keyang Li, Yu Qin, and Jing Wu from the Tsinghua, Singapore and again Tsinghua universities respectively wanted to not only settle the much discussed affordability issue but also […]