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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – How Does XBRL Affect the Cost of Equity Capital? Evidence from an Emerging Market [China]

XBRL, if you’re not fully up to speed, stands for Extensible Business Reporting Language. It’s a global standard for financial reporting which can be machine read and China was the first jurisdiction that made it mandatory in 2009. The paper I’m highlighting this week is from Songsheng Chan, Ling Harris, Wenyang Li and Donglin Wu […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – International Trends in Technological Progress: Evidence From Patent Citations, 1980-2011

That China needs to make progress up the technology/innovation curve is obvious; not least to the Zhongnanhai based engineers of ‘New Normal’. How far behind the leading edge though are they presently I wondered? And how will we be able to measure the degree and rate of catchup in years to come? While investigating this […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Financial Develpment and Economic Growth: Evidence from China

Is there anything more thrilling than finding out something you took for granted is wrong? I started this paper with a heavy heart because I knew what it would conclude. I’ve read academic literature before on the subject and the conclusion is always the intuitive one that China’s underdeveloped financial system retards economic growth. Dozy […]

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Thoughts

Value Investors Do It With Numbers

Preamble A few years ago there was a craze for ‘do-it-with’ jokes. Only the very naive would have failed to recognize do-it as a none too subtle euphemism for, well, doing it. This produced some quite amusing one liners. Organization theorists do it loosely coupled, for example; and some really sad ones. Monte Carloists do […]

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Thoughts

China; fizzy stock markets, prosaic reality. What’s going on?

The reality of events in China in the first quarter was that not much happened. The results season was a ‘meh’, underlying trends in the broad economy remained mixed and the anti-corruption campaign continued to affect decision making contributing to the new normal pace (slower) of economic development. So what’s with these fizzy stock markets? […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – China’s New Silk Road

One belt, one road. Who wouldn’t want that? Er, right, but what is it? Exactly? This weeks paper is more a long snippet but distills elegantly the big thinking behind four words that may end up changing China’s place in the world order more profoundly than since Deng opened the door in 1978. Ms. Nadege […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Xi Jinping’s inner circle: The mishu cluster I

http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2015/03/16-xi-jinping-inner-circle-mishu-cluster-li The link above will take you to a summary of the paper I want to highlight this week and also links to the first three papers in this series from Mr. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institute (roll back in my Sunday Papers section and you’ll find my earlier summaries). In this paper the […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Financing of the Terrorist Organisation Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant

A break from China this week and a detailed look at how ISIL funds itself from the Financial Action Task Force in a report from February. I thought I’d just skim this document and cherry-pick points on how to avoid being involved with terrorist financing. I discovered it instead to be a page-turner. Extensive details of […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991-2012

[I found a full length version, with English subtitles, of Chai Jing’s (柴静) ‘Under The Dome'(穹顶之下) here at http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/under-the-dome-watch-the-viral-video-documentary-about-pollution-that-is-scaring-the-chinese-government-20150308-13yag6.html. Released on February 28th it got 150m hits on Tencent in the first three days before being pulled on March 2nd; strong stuff. Now read on.] Life expectancy increases with economic growth; and this has been reliably […]

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Thoughts

China Retail/Consumer Stocks – A Useful Lesson

Preamble A few years ago in China’s stock markets the retail/consumer sector was the hottest. Rising incomes, a huge population, what could go wrong? For investors in the space the bet has proved a poor or disastrous one depending on where it was placed. That such a sure-thing should have turned out so badly should […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – What Will China Do When Land Use Rights Begin to Expire? The Evolution Toward Rule of Law in Real Estate

Largely due to it’s communist DNA the Chinese government has never ‘sold’ land to anyone. Concerns about a backlash against disposing of communal property to individuals led them in the 1980’s down the fudge-tastic path of granting limited use leases. For residential property these were/are for 70-years, for industrial property they’re for 50-years and for […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The Dark[Er] Side of ETF Investing: A Worldwide Analysis

The last two Sunday papers jabbed obliquely at the perils of ETF investing with one highlighting the dangers of following an index and the other on why ETFs lead smart people to dumb decisions. This one though goes straight for the gut. The authors, Mr. Si Cheng, Mr. Massimo Massa and Mr. Hong Zhang of […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The Dark Side of ETFs

Feeling good about the market? Wanna get some money to work on Monday because the German data last week suggests the Eurozone might be in better shape than previously thought? Whatever you ‘feel’ about markets and, more importantly, the feeling you can somehow time your purchases and sales for optimum effect is almost certainly wrong. […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – On The Economic Consequences of Index Linked Investing

The next financial crisis (only the dead have seen the end of these) will have something to do with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with leverage, as it always is, no doubt the accelerant. I say this because crises in the past have usually come from something that starts out as a good idea but then […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey (January 2015)

Me? I believe Quantitative Easing (QE) is at worst a placebo; and the record on the efficacy of placebos is impressive enough to make even their prescription worthwhile in many cases. What I’m highlighting this week is not an academic paper but a telling report from the European Central Bank (ECB) that may go some […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Is Corruption in China “Out of Control”? A Comparison with the U.S. in Historical Perspective

Does China have a corruption problem? In the paper I’m highlighting this week, from Mr. Carlos D. Ramirez of the Department of Economics at the George Mason University, the conclusion is; er, not really. What’s especially interesting about this work is that was published in December 2012 some time before Mr. Xi went in determined […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – China U.S. Trade Issues

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33536.pdf The link will take you to this Sunday’s paper, issued last December 5th, from the Congressional Research Service (Informing the legislative debate since 1914) by Mr. Wayne M. Morrison, Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance. In it Mr. Morrison does a thorough job of reminding readers of the history of America and China’s trading […]

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Thoughts

China Stocks – Are We In A Bull Market?

Preamble The last time (and I’ve sworn to never do it again) I was foolish enough to call the market was October 2010. At that time I confidently wrote we were most definitely and without a doubt entering a grand bull market. What a putz! That call was followed by the annus horribilis of 2011. […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Insider Sentiment and Market Returns around the World

Stock markets have been shown to be reliable predictors of future changes in underlying economic activity and there’s no mystery as to why this should be. If you know your company is starting to lose business and job losses, perhaps yours included, lie ahead you might chose to lighten up your equity portfolio. You do […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Technical Analysis Around the World

Today, a paper plus a rant on some pet peeves. [It’s my blog after all. Ho-ho-ho] The human brain was designed to get us safely around the Serengeti, not stock markets. Some of the wisest and most enduring advice for investors then urges us to overcome amygdalas and let prefrontal cortexs do the driving. In recent […]