The Golden Dilemma This paper (click the above link) is from the Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 2013 edition. In it the authors Mr. Claude B Erb and Mr. Campbell R. Harvey investigate six of the most commonly cited reasons for owning the yellow metal and conclude only one, an argument about under-ownership, may have some […]
Author: Nial Gooding
Introduction In January 1982 a good sized flat (by Hong Kong standards) on Hong Kong island* cost just over H$1, 000/ft². 32-years later, in January 2014, the same flat cost just over H$13, 800/ ft². That’s a total gain of 1, 280% or a 32-year CAGR of just over 8.5%. Counting back from January this […]
I’ve just returned from a trip taking in London, the South West of England, Barcelona and Majorca. Time out of the office is where most useful thinking gets done and having just spent some of the former I thought I’d jot down some of the latter while still fresh. Whether ‘useful’ or not though only […]
The Elaborate Paper Tiger This paper (click the link above) is a good introduction to the legal framework that surrounds environmental protection, and why it doesn’t work as well as it might, in China. Perhaps one of the most telling observations in this piece is one Professor Ryan (http://law.lclark.edu/live/profiles/286-erin-ryan/) mentions as an aside at the […]
Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle – Part II Following last week’s paper from Mr. Cheng Li, a director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings (he’s also a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and focuses on the transformation of political leaders, generational change […]
Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle – Part I With the kind permission of Mr. Cheng Li, director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings; also a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (Mr. Li focuses on the transformation of political leaders, generational change and […]
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Thinking About Inflation*
[*Throughout this piece I’m using the term inflation to mean price rises as that’s what most understand by the term. Not that long ago though it referred specifically to a rapid growth in money base and credit. Austrian school commentators like Henry Hazlitt insisted on using the term in its older sense to make clear […]
Who will feed China in 21st Century This paper is from June this year and was produced by The World Bank Development Research Group’s Agriculture and Rural Development Team. The authors, Ms. Emiko Fukase and Mr. Will Martin, come quickly to the conclusion that China will mostly feed itself in the medium term and they […]
Preamble If not later this week (with the release of the Centa-Citi Index on Friday around 1600 http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm) then at some stage in the very near future we’ll learn that Hong Kong home prices have hit new all-time highs. A little under a year ago I wrote a note* explaining how one of the key […]
Wazza Buffet created a stir in his last letter to shareholders recommending how cash should be invested after his death. “My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the […]
Preamble The title of this blog is inspired by a headline that appeared in The London Times on October 27th 1957 and has become an iconic quotation ever since (originally Heavy Fog in Channel. Continent Cut Off). It’s famous for highlighting the small minded yet still imperious nature of the British. Then, as now, a […]
From the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis this Working Paper Withstanding Great Recession like China should be read by everyone interested in global macroeconomics (everyone?); not just China wonks. In it Mr. Yi Wen Jing of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Mr. Jing Wu of Tsinghua University explain […]
In summary There are of course more than three views on this subject. However, as the author in the first piece highlighted wryly observes, most recently, ‘..the quantity of debate has not been matched by quality.’ The common thread to these three different takes on this subject though is that numbers may not be wholly […]
China in Africa In this paper co-authored by Mr. Thompson Ayodele and Mr. Olusegun Sotola of the Nigerian based think tank the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis (IPPA) they look at China’s involvement in Africa. Much has been written on the subject but so little from an African perspective. Their take is refreshing in that […]
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Renminbi weakness – All done for now?
Nial Gooding Friday, June 20th 2014 Summary conclusion A component of the decision to reverse the multi-year policy of Renminbi strength, I believe, was growth in the last two years of foreign currency liabilities assumed by Chinese borrowers. It’s too early to say whether this stitch-in-time action has been successful but if it has then […]
Last week I circulated a link to a paper that showed non-performing CEOs of China’s state owned enterprises get reliably dumped in the event of non-performance. That led me to a next question, answered in the paper I’m highlighting this week. In ‘Does CEO turnover matter in China? Evidence from the stock market’ Mr. Pierre […]
In ‘CEO Turnover in China: the Role of Market-based and Accounting Performance Measures’ Mr. Martin J. Conyon of Lancaster University and Ms. Lerong He of the State University of New York examine how likely Chinese CEOs are to be booted in the event of either poor company or poor stock price performance? In this paper, […]
Nial Gooding Wednesday, June 4th 2014 Preamble The Wall Street – Main Street disconnect that’s been a leitmotiv of the US economic recovery is perplexing. Why, when everything is improving, is Main Street still so down in the dumps? The answer is important as a lack of grass-roots confidence in the US has retarded re-engagement […]
Nial Gooding Monday, May 19th 2014 Preamble Torture data long enough and it’ll tell you anything. This is especially true in China because not only do we have a lot of it these days but also it’s supplemented by work from a small army of subscription-seeking axe-grinders. In this note though, as far as it’s […]