The New York Fed have a blog ‘Liberty Street Economics’ and in a recent post from advisors Hunter L. Clark and Matthew Higgins they look at the reality of China achieving per-capita GDP consistent with a mid-level developed economy, such as Greece. This is a policy goal and a target of 2035 has been set. […]
Author: Nial Gooding
If you have an interest in cryptocurrencies the work highlighted today from Robin Hui Huang and Sunny Xiyuan Li in a Research Paper for the Chinese University of Hong Kong Faculty of Law will be of interest. If you care about the development of China’s financial system, its central bank digital currency (CBDC, hereafter e-CNY) […]
In the latest Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook the IMF have devoted around a third of the publication to a review of China. The reason, I think, is twofold: First, as they point out, the region will contribute two thirds of global growth in 2024 with China accounting for the lion’s share. Prospects for […]
Every so often I read something and go ‘Wow!’ Reviewing the paper highlighted this week was one of those moments. Eping Liu and Haoyuan Qin, both from the Business Schools of the Sun Yat Sen University in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, have done extraordinary work, they claim is the first of its kind, on how corporate […]
Raghuvir Kelkar at the Silk Road School of the Renmin University of China and Zhengxu Wang from the Department of Politics at the School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University take a look at the so-called ‘Washington Consensus (WC)’ and what’s replacing it. Pronouncing the WC dead, they move on to consider how a ‘Post Washington […]
Jeff Dawson, an international policy advisor in International Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group has written a useful piece in the Bank’s blog ‘Liberty Street Economics’ on this topic of concern to all of us at present. China needs to persuade its citizenry to spend more, and this […]
Professor Fumio Hayashi of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo makes a no-nonsense argument in the paper this week about why Japan has spun its wheels for the past 30+ years. This is just “..what one would expect for any country experiencing a population aging as rapid as Japan’s.”. Moreover, his […]
With access to confidential data from the Mexican government for the period 2015~2021 researchers Hale Utar of the Grinnell College, Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz of the Dallas Fed. and Alfonso Cebreros Zurita of the Bank of Mexico address the question ‘has Mexico been a beneficiary of the U.S.-China trade war begun in 2018/19?’. The short […]
Previous studies on short selling have focused on how investors use information to drive trades. The work highlighted today, from Lixin (Nancy) Su (et al.) of the Hong Kong Polytechnic School of Accounting and Finance, looks instead at the mechanisms that drives that information acquisition. The team looked at events in the U.S. and China […]
Just because the number of college graduates employed by the state has, necessarily, fallen in recent years this isn’t, necessarily, what many would have preferred. In a follow up to the paper highlighted last week about where China’s happiest workers are found the paper this week, from Hongbin Li (et al.) of Stanford University, looks […]
Studies elsewhere in the world have been inconclusive on this question. Possibly because working for the government means different things in different locales. Li He (et al.) decided to take a closer look at China. As they point out only the tobacco and electricity distribution industries are now entirely state run so private/public comparison in […]
By measuring the number of Confucian temples and academies within a 100-kilometer radius of a hedge fund’s location the authors of the paper highlighted today believe they’ve been able to isolate a beneficial ‘Confucian influence’ on investment performance. Specifically it’s the principle of ‘Doctrine of the Mean’ i.e. progress of a middle way in all […]
The value of stock-analysts has often been questioned (not much by themselves of course!). Some work has found they have a beneficial effect as guardians of corporate governance, but other literature notes they can collude with companies and increase market risk by trend following and over-hyping fundamentally shabby propositions. Recognizing the absence of value in […]
Corporate Board gender diversity is a hot topic globally. There seems no reliable consensus though as to what causes the imbalance in the first case. Some studies have noted that golfers and smokers, activities that less women than men seem drawn to, get promoted by bosses who they share time with in these activities. Could […]
Dan Ciuriak, of Ciuriak Consulting and a three-decade veteran of the Canadian civil service, takes apart the notion of BRICS (+ friends) emerging as a alternate to the Global North in the paper highlighted today. First, he unpacks the convergence myth. He notes that in the 1980s ‘developed’ countries were about 25% of the world’s […]
A interesting take on why it wouldn’t suit China to initiate hostilities against Taiwan (of course, in the event of a declaration of independence by the Taipei government all bets would be off). In the short monograph highlighted today Aaron J. Chan of the Australian National University writing in the Princeton Journal of East Asian […]
Summary Sentiment towards China stocks is improving. A closer look at trend components suggests the momentum is likely to persist. Preamble Throughout this note I’m going to use stock prices as a sentiment-gauge acknowledging they’re far from perfect; but they’re not that bad either. A rough guide to how non-domiciled investors have fallen in, and […]
Only an academic could write “..cash is favored by criminals because of its real-time clearing of transactions..”, but we know what they mean. Haohan Ren of the School of Management at the Fudan University (et al.) examined a dataset of 165m bank cards used in 222-cities in China to see if late night activity would […]
Yangyang Chen (et al.) of the City University in Hong Kong – Department of Accountancy, wondered if financial analysts with overseas experience did a better job of forecasting than stay at home peers? China’s a good place to study this as there are more than a few analysts who’ve been overseas (to study or work) […]
China’s development path, so far, neatly fits the established track records of Korea, Japan and Taiwan. This isn’t a new observation, but in the paper highlighted today from Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Lee Ohanian and Wen Yao of the University of Pennsylvania, UCLA and Tsinghua Universities respectively, the researchers have boiled causality down to its most essential […]