Summary conclusion To be clear; not will/may hard land but is hard landing. For several years I swatted away the notion that this was going to happen; because it didn’t. Indicators are now though pointing unequivocally in this direction and only the trajectory and speed of descent are moot. This will rattle some but for value […]
Category: Thoughts
[I’m not going to present a detailed analysis here just my impression of releases to date from companies I care about (and quite a lot I don’t)] Summary conclusion A dull H114 earnings’ season is drawing to a close and prospects for H2 seem no more thrilling. The market in aggregate remains ‘cheap’ but without […]
Introduction In January 1982 a good sized flat (by Hong Kong standards) on Hong Kong island* cost just over H$1, 000/ft². 32-years later, in January 2014, the same flat cost just over H$13, 800/ ft². That’s a total gain of 1, 280% or a 32-year CAGR of just over 8.5%. Counting back from January this […]
I’ve just returned from a trip taking in London, the South West of England, Barcelona and Majorca. Time out of the office is where most useful thinking gets done and having just spent some of the former I thought I’d jot down some of the latter while still fresh. Whether ‘useful’ or not though only […]
Categories
Thinking About Inflation*
[*Throughout this piece I’m using the term inflation to mean price rises as that’s what most understand by the term. Not that long ago though it referred specifically to a rapid growth in money base and credit. Austrian school commentators like Henry Hazlitt insisted on using the term in its older sense to make clear […]
Preamble If not later this week (with the release of the Centa-Citi Index on Friday around 1600 http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm) then at some stage in the very near future we’ll learn that Hong Kong home prices have hit new all-time highs. A little under a year ago I wrote a note* explaining how one of the key […]
Preamble The title of this blog is inspired by a headline that appeared in The London Times on October 27th 1957 and has become an iconic quotation ever since (originally Heavy Fog in Channel. Continent Cut Off). It’s famous for highlighting the small minded yet still imperious nature of the British. Then, as now, a […]
Categories
Renminbi weakness – All done for now?
Nial Gooding Friday, June 20th 2014 Summary conclusion A component of the decision to reverse the multi-year policy of Renminbi strength, I believe, was growth in the last two years of foreign currency liabilities assumed by Chinese borrowers. It’s too early to say whether this stitch-in-time action has been successful but if it has then […]
Nial Gooding Wednesday, June 4th 2014 Preamble The Wall Street – Main Street disconnect that’s been a leitmotiv of the US economic recovery is perplexing. Why, when everything is improving, is Main Street still so down in the dumps? The answer is important as a lack of grass-roots confidence in the US has retarded re-engagement […]
Nial Gooding Monday, May 19th 2014 Preamble Torture data long enough and it’ll tell you anything. This is especially true in China because not only do we have a lot of it these days but also it’s supplemented by work from a small army of subscription-seeking axe-grinders. In this note though, as far as it’s […]