The piecemeal approach adopted so far by European governments to the recent waves of migration from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and sub-Saharan Africa won’t do. This migration trend will persist, perhaps for a very, very long time; and the paper highlighted this week explains why.
Frédéric Docquier and Joel Machado writing in a Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano Development Studies Working Paper have considered the world in future not as the United Nations do in their forecasting i.e. assuming all progress to developed market norms of fertility and wealth; but as things more realistically may be.
The researchers are positive on the likelihood of BRICS countries continuing to achieve economic improvement and believe their income levels will increasingly converge on those of the U.S. The same is true for Europe; but there higher incomes paint a target on their locales for immigrants, of which more below.
As India and China get richer not only will their own people be more inclined to stay at home but workers from less fortunate economies will be drawn in. America will continue to attract immigrants but at probably no greater rate than today.
The big, big challenge will be for Europe. As the Member economies of the EU progress they will be perceived as ever brighter beacons for MENA and sub-Saharan African migrants. The income gap between a progressing Europe and the, most likely, perpetually stalled economies of MENA and sub-Saharan Africa will dial up the pressure.
For European friends it gets worse. Unless there’s a dramatic change in Africa’s relative fertility rate the proportion of Africans in our world between now and 2100 will rise from 10% today to perhaps 25% by 2100. Not only then will Europe be a target because of growing economic disparity the sheer number of immigrants trying for a better life there will rise significantly [The researchers admit if they’re wrong and the MENA and other African economies take off the projections may be alarmist; but what do we think the chances of that are?].
There’s good news for Asia. Incomes in the region are projected to rise from their now 38% of the world’s total to just under 60%.
So, the next 100-years will be an Asian Century in terms of how the economies of the region will come to dominate the world; but it could equally be called an African Century in terms of how their demographics shift and how these large numbers of (mostly) poor people are dealt with by the better off parts of the world for which a sizeable minority will undoubtedly head.
Think scenes of desperate migrants on leaky boats crossing the Mediterranean and the unpredictable treatment they receive on arrival are distressing? Get used to it; better, think how can the situation be more intelligently managed? What we see now is probably the beginning of a multi-decade trend and today’s problems won’t permit themselves to be shabbily swept under the carpet indefinitely.
You can access the paper (some good charts from P.24) in full via this link 21st Century Migration Flow.
Happy Sunday