Preamble From, what we recognized then, an unsustainably high valuation level of over 30x earnings in October 2007 China stocks have been in a multi-year valuation bear-market. Following the recovery from immediate post GFC lows valuations made a lower high in July 2009 of around 20x before heading down again. In August 2011 they dropped […]
Institutional investors, for the most part, own too many stocks and individuals own too few. So what’s the right number of stocks for a manager to own and legitimately claim to be truly ‘active’? The authors of this paper put their conclusion right up there in the title when it comes to China. To be […]
Why is it taking so long for a fresh capex cycle to re-engage in the US? In the last couple of years a new database on US private companies has become available from Sageworks Inc. It takes in data from all the major US accounting firms (and many of the smaller regional ones) on their […]
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What’s good for America..
Summary conclusion The outlook for the US economy is the outlook for the global economy. It’s therefore, in large part, the outlook for China’s. Given the recent sturm und drang commentary from the US I thought a quick look at underlying reality was in order. What I found was not only reassuring but suggests, to […]
With such a short history I’m suspicious of ‘proofs’ about anything extracted from China stock market data. I’m also reluctant to allow China’s stock markets any degree of Chinese-ness in terms of explaining their long run valuations. Local factors can matter from time to time but ultimately, just as people are people, stocks are stocks […]
When and How to Exit Quantitave Easing This is a very math intensive paper (click the link above for the full text) but the plumbing for the argument is less important than the main conclusions. QE works best when it’s applied in size and swiftly. The model developed in this paper by Professor Yi Wen, assistant […]
Summary Conclusion At the beginning of this week I wrote to friends I was scared. Irresistible forces seemed headed for immovable objects and it wasn’t clear how the mob, then reeling from clashes with tear-gas firing riot-squad-gear clad police, would proceed. My biggest worry was our Wednesday holiday would turn into a July 1st 2003-style […]
What the heck’s going on in China? Since the Third Plenum last November it’s been clear something big is underway; but what? In the paper I’m highlighting this week Professor Barry Naughton, the So Kwanlok Chair of Chinese International Affairs at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San […]
With the kind permission of Professor Dr. Gerald Chan 陳智宏 Professor and former Head of Department of Political Studies at the University of Auckland, New Zealand I’m posting this paper (click the link below for the paper in full) that discusses the new world order. This is the one where China is a reluctant perhaps but nonetheless […]
Summary conclusion To be clear; not will/may hard land but is hard landing. For several years I swatted away the notion that this was going to happen; because it didn’t. Indicators are now though pointing unequivocally in this direction and only the trajectory and speed of descent are moot. This will rattle some but for value […]
Last week a friend highlighted an article that appeared originally in ‘The Hindu’ on August 25th beneath the headline ‘Dalai Lama in talks to return, Chinese official’ (http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/dalai-lama-in-talks-to-return-says-chinese-official/article6348150.ece). It seems a group of Indian journalists were recently invited for a tour of Tibet and one at least received the impression that the Dalai Lama (in […]
This went out last month and in it George speculates on some of the fallout from what he concludes is ‘..the most important political campaign in China for 25 years.’ He candidly admits there are ‘Trenchant questions which I can’t answer, and which most people can only speculate about.’ but has a go anyway. He […]
The authors of this paper don’t mince words. China can’t escape a hard landing. Why? One of their most compelling arguments is that few before have managed it. The historical precedent of economies that come off a rapid-growth-plateau is for a similiarly rapid adjustment to lower norms; why should China be any different? Assesing the […]
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The Sunday Paper – China Primer
China’s Economic Rise – Congressional Research Service The full title of this piece, published a little over a week ago by the Congressional Research Service (“Informing the legislative debate since 1914”), is ‘China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States’. It’s an excellent high-level summary of where China stands today, and […]
[I’m not going to present a detailed analysis here just my impression of releases to date from companies I care about (and quite a lot I don’t)] Summary conclusion A dull H114 earnings’ season is drawing to a close and prospects for H2 seem no more thrilling. The market in aggregate remains ‘cheap’ but without […]
This report, from July this year, is from the Pew Research Center and “..examines global public opinion about the United States, China and the international balance of power.” Pew Attitudes Report July 2014 The full report can be accessed by clicking the link above or if you’re short on time there’s a five page summary […]
The Golden Dilemma This paper (click the above link) is from the Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 2013 edition. In it the authors Mr. Claude B Erb and Mr. Campbell R. Harvey investigate six of the most commonly cited reasons for owning the yellow metal and conclude only one, an argument about under-ownership, may have some […]
Introduction In January 1982 a good sized flat (by Hong Kong standards) on Hong Kong island* cost just over H$1, 000/ft². 32-years later, in January 2014, the same flat cost just over H$13, 800/ ft². That’s a total gain of 1, 280% or a 32-year CAGR of just over 8.5%. Counting back from January this […]
I’ve just returned from a trip taking in London, the South West of England, Barcelona and Majorca. Time out of the office is where most useful thinking gets done and having just spent some of the former I thought I’d jot down some of the latter while still fresh. Whether ‘useful’ or not though only […]
The Elaborate Paper Tiger This paper (click the link above) is a good introduction to the legal framework that surrounds environmental protection, and why it doesn’t work as well as it might, in China. Perhaps one of the most telling observations in this piece is one Professor Ryan (http://law.lclark.edu/live/profiles/286-erin-ryan/) mentions as an aside at the […]