Last week a friend highlighted an article that appeared originally in ‘The Hindu’ on August 25th beneath the headline ‘Dalai Lama in talks to return, Chinese official’ (http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/dalai-lama-in-talks-to-return-says-chinese-official/article6348150.ece). It seems a group of Indian journalists were recently invited for a tour of Tibet and one at least received the impression that the Dalai Lama (in […]
This went out last month and in it George speculates on some of the fallout from what he concludes is ‘..the most important political campaign in China for 25 years.’ He candidly admits there are ‘Trenchant questions which I can’t answer, and which most people can only speculate about.’ but has a go anyway. He […]
The authors of this paper don’t mince words. China can’t escape a hard landing. Why? One of their most compelling arguments is that few before have managed it. The historical precedent of economies that come off a rapid-growth-plateau is for a similiarly rapid adjustment to lower norms; why should China be any different? Assesing the […]
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The Sunday Paper – China Primer
China’s Economic Rise – Congressional Research Service The full title of this piece, published a little over a week ago by the Congressional Research Service (“Informing the legislative debate since 1914”), is ‘China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States’. It’s an excellent high-level summary of where China stands today, and […]
[I’m not going to present a detailed analysis here just my impression of releases to date from companies I care about (and quite a lot I don’t)] Summary conclusion A dull H114 earnings’ season is drawing to a close and prospects for H2 seem no more thrilling. The market in aggregate remains ‘cheap’ but without […]
This report, from July this year, is from the Pew Research Center and “..examines global public opinion about the United States, China and the international balance of power.” Pew Attitudes Report July 2014 The full report can be accessed by clicking the link above or if you’re short on time there’s a five page summary […]
The Golden Dilemma This paper (click the above link) is from the Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 2013 edition. In it the authors Mr. Claude B Erb and Mr. Campbell R. Harvey investigate six of the most commonly cited reasons for owning the yellow metal and conclude only one, an argument about under-ownership, may have some […]
Introduction In January 1982 a good sized flat (by Hong Kong standards) on Hong Kong island* cost just over H$1, 000/ft². 32-years later, in January 2014, the same flat cost just over H$13, 800/ ft². That’s a total gain of 1, 280% or a 32-year CAGR of just over 8.5%. Counting back from January this […]
I’ve just returned from a trip taking in London, the South West of England, Barcelona and Majorca. Time out of the office is where most useful thinking gets done and having just spent some of the former I thought I’d jot down some of the latter while still fresh. Whether ‘useful’ or not though only […]
The Elaborate Paper Tiger This paper (click the link above) is a good introduction to the legal framework that surrounds environmental protection, and why it doesn’t work as well as it might, in China. Perhaps one of the most telling observations in this piece is one Professor Ryan (http://law.lclark.edu/live/profiles/286-erin-ryan/) mentions as an aside at the […]
Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle – Part II Following last week’s paper from Mr. Cheng Li, a director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings (he’s also a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and focuses on the transformation of political leaders, generational change […]
Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle – Part I With the kind permission of Mr. Cheng Li, director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings; also a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (Mr. Li focuses on the transformation of political leaders, generational change and […]
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Thinking About Inflation*
[*Throughout this piece I’m using the term inflation to mean price rises as that’s what most understand by the term. Not that long ago though it referred specifically to a rapid growth in money base and credit. Austrian school commentators like Henry Hazlitt insisted on using the term in its older sense to make clear […]
Who will feed China in 21st Century This paper is from June this year and was produced by The World Bank Development Research Group’s Agriculture and Rural Development Team. The authors, Ms. Emiko Fukase and Mr. Will Martin, come quickly to the conclusion that China will mostly feed itself in the medium term and they […]
Preamble If not later this week (with the release of the Centa-Citi Index on Friday around 1600 http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm) then at some stage in the very near future we’ll learn that Hong Kong home prices have hit new all-time highs. A little under a year ago I wrote a note* explaining how one of the key […]
Wazza Buffet created a stir in his last letter to shareholders recommending how cash should be invested after his death. “My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the […]
Preamble The title of this blog is inspired by a headline that appeared in The London Times on October 27th 1957 and has become an iconic quotation ever since (originally Heavy Fog in Channel. Continent Cut Off). It’s famous for highlighting the small minded yet still imperious nature of the British. Then, as now, a […]
From the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis this Working Paper Withstanding Great Recession like China should be read by everyone interested in global macroeconomics (everyone?); not just China wonks. In it Mr. Yi Wen Jing of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Mr. Jing Wu of Tsinghua University explain […]
In summary There are of course more than three views on this subject. However, as the author in the first piece highlighted wryly observes, most recently, ‘..the quantity of debate has not been matched by quality.’ The common thread to these three different takes on this subject though is that numbers may not be wholly […]
China in Africa In this paper co-authored by Mr. Thompson Ayodele and Mr. Olusegun Sotola of the Nigerian based think tank the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis (IPPA) they look at China’s involvement in Africa. Much has been written on the subject but so little from an African perspective. Their take is refreshing in that […]