A lot that’s questionable about the analysis in the paper highlighted today is visible in the chart below. Before I come back to that let me summarize work from Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Yue Hua Tang, both of the University of Florids, which is the subject of this week’s paper. Quantie-folk, for years, have employed models […]

Why don’t I buy IPOs (and you shouldn’t either)? In the case of China stocks it’s because they’re nearly always overpriced and more often than not pre-IPO earnings have been manipulated to assist the over pricing. These are now established facts, not opinions. The paper today, from Ziyi Chen of the Hong Kong University of […]

Minority Shareholder Activism (MSA) is all the rage. Fans claim it’s making a difference in Japan and no self-respecting institutional manager can make a pitch now without a few paragraphs devoted to the subject. The paper highlighted this week is therefore of interest in this context. In the work Han Han and Zhibin Wang of […]

[*I think the authors mean China Railway Corporation which changed it’s name to simply China Rail in 2019 CRC reorganization. Perhaps I’m just being a little anorak-and-cheese-sandwich-tastic keen? The paper is a preprint though and not yet peer reviewed so I presume this ambiguity will be fixed in the final version.] China’s High Speed Rail […]

Felix Chang of the University of Cincinnati College of Law; Ohio State University (OSU) – Michael E. Moritz College of Law wants discussion on the greater international use of the Rmb to stop conflating CHIPS, SWIFT and CIPS. They are very different things and, to remind: CHIPS or the Clearing House Interbank Payments System is […]

“Holding value stocks for the long term when sentiment is low will give investors very high returns in the Chinese stock market.” I could stop the summary there. That’s all casual readers need to know. The authors of the paper from which this nugget is extracted, Zhaohui Jiang (et al.), drilled the Shenzhen and Shanghai […]

We know a lot about how Americans and Taiwanese view the Taiwan question, but until now there’s been no good data on how the women and men on-the-street in China view the same issue. Adam Liu of the Lee Kuan Yu School of Public Policy in Singapore and Xiaojun Li of the NYU Shanghai and […]

Automation marginalizes low skilled workers and leads to societal inequality and attendant problems. This, or some version of it, has been a popular perception since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The notion persists because, like so much wrong-thinking, it kind-of sounds right and the discussion has recently been revived by a new generation looking […]

The main point of the analysis highlighted this week from Yutian An and Taisu Zhang, a Phd candidate at Princeton and a Professor of law at Yale Law School, is summed up in the last line of their 60-page monograph: “For better or worse, China has now entered a new administrative paradigm” The researchers take […]

[The Low-Risk-Effect, also known as the Low-Volatility Anomaly has a brief Wiki entry Low-Volatility-Anomaly you may want to visit if the subject is new for you.] Trillions of dollars are invested based on a model we now know, with near certainty, is in large part incorrect. I’m referring to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), […]

It’s a bit of a mystery as to why, given the increase in prosperity they’ve enjoyed in recent years, Chinese in China haven’t become more charitable? Reza Hasmath of the University of Alberta together with Qian Wei of Stanford University decided to take a closer look using a detailed study from 2012 which, they admit, […]

The authors of the paper summarized below admit their analysis could be better. It could have had a wider scope and it would have been better if it’d been conducted over a longer time period; but, as their subject didn’t exist until October 2019 I think we can forgive them. If their work has Swiss-cheese-like […]

As an in-part follow up to last weeks’ review of the IMF’s annual China report the work today, from the U.S. Federal Reserve last November, takes a closer look at how Chinese economic activity impacts the world*. [*The IMF estimated in their report a 1% change in China’s GDP implied between a 0.25%~0.4% global spillover, […]

The IMF raised its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China to +5.2%* on January 30th and, given we’re only in February, it seems likely there’ll be more favorable revisions to come. [*Some confusion. In the China Report, dated February 3rd and highlighted below, there’s a forecast of +4.2% for 2023 GDP, but in the World […]

Stephen Deane CFA and Oliver Fines CFA talked to practitioners, academics and users in the crypto space to put together the report which you can read in full via this link Cryptoassets: Beyond the Hype. They advise the two main engaged camps i.e. policy makers and investors, as follows. To the former, the advice is […]

[The paper highlighted today is so well written it’s been hard to summarize. If you’re involved with or have a desire to invest in China’s new-economy I’d urge the full read which you can perform via this link The Great Rectification] Roger Creemers from the Leiden Institute for Area Studies at the Leiden University of […]

The Solow Growth Model (Solow Model, a quick primer), named after Nobel prize winner Robert Solow explains how an economy can grow relative to inputs such as capital, technology and labor. As Tianyong Zhou of the Dongbei University of Finance and Economics points out however this model does a poor job at explaining China’s past […]