The note highlighted this week doesn’t live up to the rather racy headline. It’s not about how the PLA is fanning, or preparing to fan, out around the world. It is however a useful think-piece about how, and in what circumstances, China might deploy it’s increasing military heft overseas.
The paper (more an essay) comes from the National Bureau of Asian Research in Seattle, Washington and it’s authors are Kristen Gonness and Oriana Skylar Mastro. The former is an adjunct policy analyst at the Rand Corporation and the latter is Assistant Professor of Securities Studies at Georgetown University; so they know what they’re talking about in what is really a briefing for US policymakers.
They predict four types of increasing overseas military involvement by China. Activism, team play, vigilantism and free riding. The first two they believe should be encouraged if the last two are to be minimized or avoided.
Why is it likely that China will flex it’s military muscle more overseas? It has more direct involvement with other parts of the world than before. It’s nationals are increasingly being sent to dangerous locales in places like Africa and as the One Belt One Road initiative gathers pace its likely more assets China cares about will be located beyond their borders. Moreover the public will expect the Party to have the ability to look after their overseas interests and President Xi Jinping has said he wants a better organized military capable of dealing with problems far from home.
If the process is handled constructively, the authors conclude, China could be a welcome and useful partner in future global security initiatives. The scope for going rogue though will always be present; but China wouldn’t be the first great power to make mistakes in that regard [Ahem! Iraq anyone?].
The paper in full is at Global PLA
Happy Sunday