The scope of work highlighted today from Joanna Bialynicka of the Birula Cracow University of Economics, Poland concludes frustratingly in 2015. Trends identified, and the single most important, though I doubt have changed direction since and, if anything, are likely to have intensified.
A summary of the main points:
- Over the period the volume of transactions and their aggregate value increased; analysis of similarly progressing series suggests this is trend is most likely to continue
- Activity, of course, dipped during the financial crisis but by 2010 it had recovered most of its vim
- Three geographies dominate the scene. In size order they are: The U.S., Europe and China (this includes HK but not, it seems, Taiwan)
- The big change over the period is the contraction of the U.S. and the rise of China from around nowhere to, well, a lot! (See below)
The art market has thrived historically on secrecy, rumor and insider information but as this work shows it’s increasingly easier to collect reliable transactional data.
This might not lead a speculator to the next Basquiat but better information over time may encourage more participation from those seeking something more reliable than crypto-assets to diversify wealth into.
Art as investment? Not my cup of tea; but then anything without a coupon or dividend is never going to make it into my ever-cautious universe. Full disclosure, my walls aren’t entirely without adornment; but none of my pieces are ever likely to turn up in China auction statistics!
The full paper is available via the following link The Global Art Market 2002~2015.
Happy Sunday.