Dr. Marcia Don Harpaz, from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Faculty of Law believes that China is heading in the direction of WTO leadership. Presently though it lacks, crucially, the ability to assume the role and the willingness of other nations to follow it.
WTO leadership in the past has been characterized by two features: a) an us vs. them arrangement of developed versus less developed countries and b) overall U.S. domination. When China joined in 2001 it was expected to become a champion of the less developed bloc and, at least initially, it took on part of that role. However, as many developing countries saw China from the get-go as a competitor it’s not become a reliable champion of this group and developed countries never saw China fitting naturally into their neighborhood.
As far as U.S. dominance is concerned the Trump administration have been hostile to the body and cut around it with first steel and aluminum tariffs and then tariffs directed at China that ordinarily should have come through the forum. The irony, lost on many in America, being the WTO is largely a creation of the U.S.’s many-decades position as global-trade hegemon.
On accession to the WTO China was reluctant to lead on account of the many changes it was experiencing at home as a result of it’s new membership. It felt, and said, it needed to focus its attention on putting its house in order first. At the Doha Round in 2005 it began to become more engaged.
At the Bali Ministerial in 2013 it was showing definite signs of having developed a will to lead. Again at the Nairobi Ministerial in 2015 it was taking outspoken positions and finally at Davos 2017 President Xi left the world in no doubt who the most vocal champion of global free trade had become.
The author concludes the whole question may be moot if the U.S. applies unilateral sanctions against China and progresses a veiled threat to leave the organization altogether. Moreover, even if the WTO holds together many countries perceive China a threat and will have trouble rallying around even if China were to more assertively pursue a leadership role.
Either outcome doesn’t sound good. Weak multilateralism with China a center of gravity other nations reluctantly orbit or, worse and the path the U.S. seem now set on, messy unilateralism based on everyone-for-themselves-ism.
You’ll find the full discussion via this link China and the WTO: On a Path to Leadership?
Er, Happy Sunday?