Overall, the authors of a recent IMF Working Paper (November 12th 2018) reckon, China’s doing a good job on rebalancing and, by implication, management of the economy in general.
Rui Mano and Jiayi Zhang point out that superficially disappointing progress in 2017 had more to do with external factors than domestic backsliding. They conclude, unsurprisingly, more needs to be done but China has set itself on a course of no-return and all that remains in doubt is the speed with which progress will be achieved.
You can read the neat 12-pager (17-with references and charts) via this link China’s Rebalancing and below I’ve filleted four of the most interesting charts.
How’s My Rebalancing?
Breathing More Easily; At Least A Bit
Hard To Believe; True Nonetheless
Insoluble; Because It Just Is
This last chart is important for investors because provincial governments are often good at thumbing tubs on why you should take their region more seriously. I listened to just such a story earlier this year when on a visit to Shenyang in Liaoning Province. The enthusiasm of the provincial authority was commendable but they face there a nigh on impossible uphill-battle against geography, history and how far behind they are in the development race.
It may not be clear from the extracted map but the other laggards (no-hopers?), apart from Liaoning, are: Jilin, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia and Hainan. Encouraging that neither Tibet nor Xinjiang make the duffers’ list.
Happy Sunday.