It’s no secret, one of the most challenging areas for future development in China is the Northeast or ‘Dongbei’ area.
This former industrial region is a poster-child for post-industrial decay, and the population movement out of the area in recent years is a matter of public record.
What a great place then to study the effect of High Speed Rail (HSR) connection and see if new light can be shed on the notion HSR connections to shrinking cities accelerate their demise?
Yuxin Yang (et al.) from the Northwest Normal University takes population decline as a given in his study and looks more closely at the composition of the economies of cities with new HSR connections; and this is where it gets interesting.
A shift from low-end economic activity to higher value added ones is clear. Increased investment in higher tech industries has also occurred (the benefits of which may take time to translate into population retention).
There’s also been an uptick in tourist related activity. The northeast is famous for its scenery and winter leisure potential and it seems increasing numbers are traveling there to enjoy both. Tourists bring money but don’t grow the population. Not, necessarily, a bad outcome.
The paper concludes that studies from Japan and elsewhere that highlight population declines accelerating in smaller cities after HSR connection may not be relevant when considering Dongbei’s future.
In China’s case even ‘smaller’ cities are still very large conurbations and in many cases they’re places where a variety of other stimulatory policies, such as complimentary infrastructure development, are being promoted.
This makes a bald analysis of population numbers unhelpful if their overall development is to be properly considered. Who doesn’t want a less crowded city with better jobs? This is where, the paper suggests, many of the towns in the Dongbei region may be headed.
You can read the analysis in full via the following link HSR: Weapon for Downturn or Catalyst for Change.
Happy Sunday.