Writing in a regular publication of the Centre For Economic Policy Research Muhammad A. Cheema (et. al.) of the University of Waikato, N.Z. took a look at the performance of so-called ‘safe haven assets’ over the recent COVID-19 (C-19) related stock market kerfuffle(s).
Others have done similar analysis but what makes this work different is the researchers compare the performance of assets over C-19 and the GFC to tease out the recurrent themes.
The most important finding is that gold worked well over the GFC but hasn’t been a reliable hedge this time around as it’s price has very closely correlated with stocks; both down and up.
The research suggests two possible reasons: 1) gold performed badly between 2011~2015 losing 45% of its value and investors were left with a bad-taste as a result, and 2) substitutes like Tether*, a so-called ‘stablecoin’ have become available.
[* More on Tether at Tether at Wiki. Absolutely terrifying! IMHO.]
So what has worked well on both occasions? Swiss Francs and U.S. government backed debt.
Silver was no good both times. The U$ only really worked for China and India during C-19 but was a better hedge for most in the GFC. Finally Bitcoin, unavailable during the GFC, has been too volatile during C-19 to have provided a hedge to anyone [I note though, in fairness, it’s defied skeptics and not collapsed entirely either].
The academics may be right about the merits of the Swissy or Tether [Not with a pole! Ed.] when we again find ourselves in discombobulated markets (there’s always a next time!). However, there’s some older and easier advice that’ll probably work just as well for most. Viz., cash, in turbulent times, is always king!
You can read the paper in full via the following link Safe Haven Assets.
Happy Sunday.