The study in the paper linked to at the bottom of this note claims to be the only one of its kind to longitudinally study the Chinese public’s approval over time (since 2003) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
It came out in July this year and got respectable coverage from China-centric news-mongers but received perfunctory coverage from most Western outlets. The reason for this differently-accented coverage was almost certainly due to the inconvenient truth it contains.
Researchers Edward Cunningham, Tony Saich and Jessie Turriel from the Harvard Kennedy School found that from 2003 to 2016 the satisfaction of the general public in China with the CCP has risen steadily and across the board.
They found no evidence of any ‘..looming “social volcano”.’ and that satisfaction had risen the most among poorer and more marginalized groups in inland areas which they believe was a direct response to the government’s tangible results in improving their lot.
Cause and effect seem to be at work elsewhere with local governments lifting their standing based on improved perceptions of grass-roots officials in terms of responsiveness, effectiveness and honesty.
[An interesting aside here. In China dissatisfaction with authority is most pronounced the closer people get to it which is the opposite of most Western studies that show local governments are often thought of more highly than national ones.]
Of course the survey only covers the period up to 2016 and a lot could have changed since then but most probably hasn’t. Why not?
The heading the researcher’s chose for their concluding remarks says it all. Referring to the CCPs ongoing popularity and approval they predict “Continued Resilience through Earned Legitimacy”. I’d be prepared to bet the recent coordinated Western campaigns of containment have handed the CCP an unexpected gift in this regard.
Bottom line. Don’t waste your time hoping for or looking for signs of regime change in China. A trend in this direction isn’t going to be a feature of the domestic political landscape for a very long time (if ever?).
You can read the report in full via the following link Understanding CCP Resilience.
Happy Sunday.