Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel of M.I.T. qualify their work in the paper highlighted today by reminding their sample is only from January 22nd to March 21st and over this period 83% of testing has taken place in non-tropical i.e. countries in a latitude 30-degrees North or above. Moreover 90% of positive results have come from places where the temperature has between 3~17-degrees Celsius.
They note a widespread notion, reinforced by the above data, that warmer weather may retard the virus. However, more data is now coming in from Australia, the UAE, Qatar, Singapore, Bahrain and Taiwan (which are below 30-degrees North) and there appears to be a surge in cases from areas where the temperature is above 18-degrees Celsius.
To cut to the chase and in the researchers own words “.. it is extremely unlikely that the spread of 2019-nCoV would slow down in the USA or Europe, due to environmental factors ,because a large number of cases have already been reported in the range of AH [Absolute Humidity] and T [Temperature] experienced by these regions for [the] most part of the year.”
So the bad news is, based on what we knew up ’till March 21st, warmer weather alone can’t be relied upon to retard the spread of the virus. High humidity may slow it but even that’s a big ‘if’ based on the best science we have to date.
So, for now at least, we keep our masks on, our distance from others and wash hands one more time. Sunlight might not be the best disinfectant in the case of COVID-19, or any disinfectant at all.
You can access the paper in full via the following link Coronavirus and Weather.
Happy Sunday. Stay safe.